ValueCM Blog

Market Outlook 21

Posted on by ValueCM

Hi All


Writing here after a long long time but hope you enjoyed all my SMSes and these multi-fold gains since March 09. Its feels great that we picked the market at absolute bottom and informed you on time so that you make maximum out of it.

Further I come to the point because of which most of you must have come here on this page, about the markets in coming weeks.

 

I already expressed my long term (from trading point of view) market  outlook on 1st April 09 SMS : Nifty tgt is NEW ALL TIME HIGH in yr 2009.So friends dont miss this mega mother of all bull rally.  81 days ago

 

For short term trading following are the ideas:

  1. Immediate Nifty target 4491 SL 4191 after 4491 two possibilities are there going higher to 5500 level in next few weeks or retracing back to 3611 level. I opine in the 1st case favour; if its 2nd case will be good opportunity for them who lost the last opportunity and will tell you accordingly either on sms or here.
  2. For expiry bets:

i.        Tata Steel 440 call tgt 26+

ii.      Tata Motors 340 call tgt 30-60

iii.    NF 4400/4500 call tgt 200+/100+

iv.     Write 4600 put tgt 0

  1. Short term picks:

IFCI ->Strong buy tgt 76

i.        GVKPIL tgt 66 very short term(we are advising this stock since 12 level)

ii.      Tata Steel tgt 660+

iii.    Tata Motors tgt 460

iv.     FSL tgt 35+

v.       INDOWIND and SUZLON accumulate in all decline NO TGT GOOD MUTIBAGER IF U BELIEVE IN ENERGY OF FUTURE. Immediate tgt 66 and 190+ respectively

If you really want to make money in market either as investment or trading you have to remember a few things. Few I am mentioning here but most I will publish separately (sure for free as I charge only for capital management not for tips or tricks):

  1. Day trade is like pizza or burger it’s good sometime but can be your full meal always. No pure day trader can survive in market for long or can make money infinitely. Writers can write books about successful day trading and make money, tip-givers can make money etc but not a pure day trader. So make it a point not to do additive day trading.
  2. Differentiate between a major movement and normal movement or no movement market. Day trading is good in times of last two. Example was time since November 08 till February 09. One who is tracking my calls and blogs must have seen the difference in call types since last 2-3 years. For example I was writing regularly on blog since October 08 till February 09 about daily levels but in October given only positional shorts and since November till February only daily levels and Investment advices but no positional trades.
  3. About technicals: These are good tools but same as auto-pilot in plane u can take help of it but can depend on it. Almost NO TA was long at 2500 level NIFTY and same almost no TA short on 140 $ crude.
  4. About Options (option buying): Premium = SL  -> always remember this. Take for example if you buy say a stock for RS 1000 you will put SL of at least 3% or 30 Rs but after Sl you have to exit but in case of option you buy a call (or in case you are bearish a put) for 30-50 Rs and even if your stock goes down 50% you are in loss of premium only and most important your stock can give you surprise even on expiry date.

 

Next few points I may mention in my later posts(as I am little lethargic in putting my ideas on paper and more active in putting them to use).

ValueCM

Leave a Reply